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Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources
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| name | edge |
| description | Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources |
| emoji | 🎯 |
Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.
/edge
/edge politics
/edge fed
/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds
/edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi
/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000
# probability, decimal odds, bankroll
/edge kelly 55 2.5
# 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll
User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels
User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence
User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll
🎯 EDGE DETECTED
Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"
Platform: Polymarket
Current Price: 23¢
External Sources:
• CME FedWatch: 41%
• Bloomberg Consensus: 38%
• Historical base rate: 35%
Estimated Fair Value: 38¢
Edge: +15¢ (+65%)
Confidence: Medium
Kelly Suggestion:
• Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll
• Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll