trending-market-machine

name	trending-market-machine
version	2.0.0
description	Auto-create Baozi Lab prediction markets from trending topics
author	TheAuroraAI
category	market-creation
requires	["@baozi.bet/mcp-server","@solana/web3.js"]
env	[{"SOLANA_RPC_URL":"Solana RPC endpoint (default: mainnet-beta)"},{"SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY":"JSON array of wallet secret key bytes"},{"DRY_RUN":"Set to 'true' to simulate without creating markets"}]

Trending Market Machine

The machine never sleeps. If it's trending, there's a market.

An autonomous agent that monitors trending topics across multiple platforms and auto-creates properly-structured Lab prediction markets on Baozi.

What It Does

1. Detects trends from 3 sources: CoinGecko (crypto), HackerNews (tech), RSS feeds (news/sports)
2. Generates market questions following Baozi Parimutuel Rules v7.0 (Type A only)
3. Validates via local rule checks AND the Baozi validation API
4. Creates Lab markets on Solana mainnet with proper metadata
5. Deduplicates — never creates duplicate markets for the same topic

v7.0 Compliance

All markets are Type A (event-based) only. Type B (measurement-period) markets are banned.

The Core Test: "Can a bettor observe or calculate the likely outcome while betting is still open?"

• YES → BLOCKED
• NO → Allowed

Blocked Terms (auto-rejected): price above, price below, trading volume, market cap, gains most, total volume, total burned, average over, this week, this month, floor price, ATH, TVL

Trend Sources

Source	Category	Market Types
CoinGecko Trending	Crypto	Mainnet launches, exchange listings, partnerships, governance votes
HackerNews	Tech	Product launches, acquisitions, regulatory decisions, IPO filings
CoinDesk RSS	Crypto	Protocol upgrades, partnerships
TechCrunch RSS	Tech	Product launches, acquisitions
ESPN RSS	Sports	Game outcomes, championships

Market Types Generated

All markets follow the pattern: "Will [specific event] happen before [date]?"

Crypto:

• Mainnet/upgrade launches
• Exchange listings on major CEXs
• Partnership confirmations
• Governance proposal outcomes

Tech/News:

• Product/feature availability
• Acquisition/merger confirmations
• Regulatory/legal decisions
• IPO filings
• Open source release milestones

Sports:

• Game/match outcomes (single point-in-time event)

Commands

# Detect trending topics (no market creation)
bun run detect

# Validate a market question
bun run validate "Will Ethereum complete the Pectra upgrade before March 2026?"

# Create markets (dry run)
DRY_RUN=true bun run start

# Create markets (live)
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY='[...]' bun run start

# Run continuous loop (every 15 min)
bun run start loop

Market Quality Rules

• Type A ONLY — single point-in-time events with genuinely unknowable outcomes
• No price/volume/metric prediction markets (v7.0 banned)
• No duplicate markets (checks existing Baozi markets)
• No subjective outcomes ("Will people like X?" → rejected)
• Closing time ≥ 24h before event (v7.0 requirement)
• Minimum 48h until closing time
• Maximum 14 days until closing
• Must have verifiable data source (tier-1 sources preferred)
• Rate limited to 3 markets/hour