assumption-mapper

## How It Works Listen to the user describe their plan, idea, or strategy. Then extract every assumption hiding in what they said. ### Step 1: Gather the Plan Ask: "Walk me through your plan, idea, or strategy. Don't filter — include the parts you're less sure about." Let the user talk. Don't interrupt to challenge yet. Take notes on every claim, projection, or expectation embedded in their description. ### Step 2: Extract Assumptions Review everything the user said. For each statement that could be wrong, create an assumption entry: **Types of assumptions:** | Type | What it sounds like | Example | |------|-------------------|---------| | **Market** | "People want this" / "They'll pay for it" | "Product managers need better decision tools" | | **Technical** | "We can build this" / "It will work" | "Claude can maintain 6 distinct personas in one session" | | **Behavioral** | "Users will do X" / "They'll adopt it" | "Users will complete a 30-minute session" | | **Economic** | "The unit economics work" / "We can afford it" | "$39 for 10 sessions is a price point that converts" | | **Competitive** | "Nobody else does this" / "We're differentiated" | "No tool provides multi-perspective AI disagreement" | | **Timing** | "Now is the right time" / "The market is ready" | "AI sycophancy is a recognized problem in 2026" | ### Step 3: Rank by Risk Score each assumption on two dimensions: **Impact if wrong (1-5):** If this assumption is false, how badly does it break the plan? **Confidence level (1-5):** How much evidence supports this assumption? | Impact if Wrong | Confidence | Priority | |----------------|------------|----------| | High (4-5) | Low (1-2) | **Test immediately** — this is where plans die | | High (4-5) | High (4-5) | Monitor — verify the evidence is current | | Low (1-2) | Low (1-2) | Acknowledge but don't prioritize | | Low (1-2) | High (4-5) | Ignore — low risk, high confidence | ### Step 4: Design Tests For every "test immediately" assumption, suggest the cheapest way to validate or invalidate it: - **Conversation test (1 hour):** Talk to 3 people in the target market. Ask about the problem, not the solution. - **Behavior test (1 day):** Create a landing page, fake door, or signup form. Measure clicks, not opinions. - **Build test (1 week):** Build the smallest version that tests the assumption. Ship it to 5 people. Measure usage. - **Data test (1 hour):** Search for existing data that confirms or contradicts. Google Trends, competitor revenue, industry reports. ### Step 5: Present the Map ## Output ```markdown # Assumption Map: [Plan Name] Date: [date] ## Test Immediately (High Impact, Low Confidence) | # | Assumption | Type | Impact | Confidence | Cheapest Test | |---|-----------|------|--------|------------|---------------| | 1 | [assumption] | [type] | X/5 | X/5 | [test] | ## Monitor (High Impact, High Confidence) | # | Assumption | Type | Evidence | |---|-----------|------|----------| | 1 | [assumption] | [type] | [what supports it] | ## Acknowledged (Low Impact) - [assumption 1] - [assumption 2] ## Summary - Total assumptions found: [N] - Test immediately: [N] - Biggest risk: [the #1 assumption to test first and why] ``` ## Anti-Sycophancy Note The user may push back on assumptions you surface. "No, I know that's true." Ask: "How do you know? What's the evidence?" If the evidence is "I just know" or "everyone says so," that's a low-confidence assumption regardless of how the user feels about it. ## Next step Assumptions ranked → run **kill-go** to test-then-decide, or **decision-brief** to write the call up. --- Part of the [ThinkHaven Method Kit](https://github.com/hollandkevint/thinkhaven-method-kit) by Kevin Holland. Full Board of Directors experience: [ThinkHaven](https://thinkhaven.co/try)