forecast

# /forecast Generate a weighted sales forecast with risk analysis and commit recommendations. ## Usage ``` /forecast [period] ``` Generate a forecast for: $ARGUMENTS If a file is referenced: @$1 --- ## How It Works ``` ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ FORECAST │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ STANDALONE (always works) │ │ ✓ Upload CSV export from your CRM │ │ ✓ Or paste/describe your pipeline deals │ │ ✓ Set your quota and timeline │ │ ✓ Get weighted forecast with stage probabilities │ │ ✓ Risk-adjusted projections (best/likely/worst case) │ │ ✓ Commit vs. upside breakdown │ │ ✓ Gap analysis and recommendations │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ SUPERCHARGED (when you connect your tools) │ │ + CRM: Pull pipeline automatically, real-time data │ │ + Historical win rates by stage, segment, deal size │ │ + Activity signals for risk scoring │ │ + Automatic refresh and tracking over time │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ``` --- ## What I Need From You ### Step 1: Your Pipeline Data **Option A: Upload a CSV** Export your pipeline from your CRM (e.g. Salesforce, HubSpot). I need at minimum: - Deal/Opportunity name - Amount - Stage - Close date Helpful if you have: - Owner (if team forecast) - Last activity date - Created date - Account name **Option B: Paste your deals** ``` Acme Corp - $50K - Negotiation - closes Jan 31 TechStart - $25K - Demo scheduled - closes Feb 15 BigCo - $100K - Discovery - closes Mar 30 ``` **Option C: Describe your territory** "I have 8 deals in pipeline totaling $400K. Two are in negotiation ($120K), three in evaluation ($180K), three in discovery ($100K)." ### Step 2: Your Targets - **Quota**: What's your number? (e.g., "$500K this quarter") - **Timeline**: When does the period end? (e.g., "Q1 ends March 31") - **Already closed**: How much have you already booked this period? --- ## Output ```markdown # Sales Forecast: [Period] **Generated:** [Date] **Data Source:** [CSV upload / Manual input / CRM] --- ## Summary | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | **Quota** | $[X] | | **Closed to Date** | $[X] ([X]% of quota) | | **Open Pipeline** | $[X] | | **Weighted Forecast** | $[X] | | **Gap to Quota** | $[X] | | **Coverage Ratio** | [X]x | --- ## Forecast Scenarios | Scenario | Amount | % of Quota | Assumptions | |----------|--------|------------|-------------| | **Best Case** | $[X] | [X]% | All deals close as expected | | **Likely Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Stage-weighted probabilities | | **Worst Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Only commit deals close | --- ## Pipeline by Stage | Stage | # Deals | Total Value | Probability | Weighted Value | |-------|---------|-------------|-------------|----------------| | Negotiation | [X] | $[X] | 80% | $[X] | | Proposal | [X] | $[X] | 60% | $[X] | | Evaluation | [X] | $[X] | 40% | $[X] | | Discovery | [X] | $[X] | 20% | $[X] | | **Total** | [X] | $[X] | — | $[X] | --- ## Commit vs. Upside ### Commit (High Confidence) Deals you'd stake your forecast on: | Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Why Commit | |------|--------|-------|------------|------------| | [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Reason] | **Total Commit:** $[X] ### Upside (Lower Confidence) Deals that could close but have risk: | Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Risk Factor | |------|--------|-------|------------|-------------| | [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Risk] | **Total Upside:** $[X] --- ## Risk Flags | Deal | Amount | Risk | Recommendation | |------|--------|------|----------------| | [Deal] | $[X] | Close date passed | Update close date or move to lost | | [Deal] | $[X] | No activity in 14+ days | Re-engage or downgrade stage | | [Deal] | $[X] | Close date this week, still in discovery | Unlikely to close — push out | --- ## Gap Analysis **To hit quota, you need:** $[X] more **Options to close the gap:** 1. **Accelerate [Deal]** — Currently [stage], worth $[X]. If you can close by [date], you're at [X]% of quota. 2. **Revive [Stalled Deal]** — Last active [date]. Worth $[X]. Reach out to [contact]. 3. **New pipeline needed** — You need $[X] in new opportunities at [X]x coverage to be safe. --- ## Recommendations 1. [ ] [Specific action for highest-impact deal] 2. [ ] [Action for at-risk deal] 3. [ ] [Pipeline generation recommendation if gap exists] ``` --- ## Stage Probabilities (Default) If you don't provide custom probabilities, I'll use: | Stage | Default Probability | |-------|---------------------| | Closed Won | 100% | | Negotiation / Contract | 80% | | Proposal / Quote | 60% | | Evaluation / Demo | 40% | | Discovery / Qualification | 20% | | Prospecting / Lead | 10% | Tell me if your stages or probabilities are different. --- ## If CRM Connected - I'll pull your pipeline automatically - Use your actual historical win rates - Factor in activity recency for risk scoring - Track forecast changes over time - Compare to previous forecasts --- ## Tips 1. **Be honest about commit** — Only commit deals you'd bet on. Upside is for everything else. 2. **Update close dates** — Stale close dates kill forecast accuracy. Push out deals that won't close in time. 3. **Coverage matters** — 3x pipeline coverage is healthy. Below 2x is risky. 4. **Activity = signal** — Deals with no recent activity are at higher risk than stage suggests.