thinking-cynefin

# Cynefin Classification Classify by cause-effect, then use only the matching response mode. Wrong-domain method is the failure mode. ## When to Use - Unsure whether to run a playbook, analyze, probe, or stabilize. - A method keeps failing and domain mismatch is plausible. - A novel or mixed problem needs approach selection before solution work. ## When NOT to Use - Domain and method are already agreed—execute. - Task is finding a specific cause, not choosing an approach. - Classification done; switch to the domain method—do not re-label endlessly. - Pure mechanical edits with no approach uncertainty. ## Procedure 1. **State the unit.** Name the decision, incident, or subsystem; if mixed, list separable parts. 2. **Probe cause-effect.** Is the link obvious, expert-analyzable, retrospective only, or imperceptible in turbulence? Check predictability, urgency, and probe safety. 3. **Assign one domain per unit:** - **Clear** — obvious → Sense → Categorize → Respond with a runbook. - **Complicated** — expert-analyzable → Sense → Analyze → Respond; several valid answers. - **Complex** — emergent → Probe → Sense → Respond with safe-to-fail probes; amplify/dampen signals. - **Chaotic** — no safe sensing time → Act → Sense → Respond; stabilize first. - **Disorder** — unknown → split and classify each part. 4. **Mismatch check.** Reject Clear if its runbook fails; Complicated if analysis cannot predict; Complex if probing is unsafe; Chaotic once safe probing becomes possible. 5. **Commit and stop.** Output domain + first actions. Re-classify only on evidence of domain shift. **Stop when** every unit has one domain, first actions, and a falsifier—or disorder is decomposed. ## Output ```text unit: <decision/incident/part> domain: clear | complicated | complex | chaotic | disorder evidence: <cause-effect basis> response_mode: <Sense-Categorize-Respond | Sense-Analyze-Respond | Probe-Sense-Respond | Act-Sense-Respond | decompose> first_actions: <1-3 concrete steps> falsifier: <what forces reclassification> parts: <only if disorder> ``` ## Verification - **Falsify:** Reliable prediction → not Complex. No safe probe → Chaotic. Working runbook → Clear. - **Stop:** Stop classifying once the matched action is clear. - **Over-application guard:** Do not call work Complex to avoid analysis or Complicated to avoid a standard fix. One label per unit; decompose multi-domain work.