pvg

name	pvg
description	Handler for goals focused on PREVENTING bad outcomes rather than achieving good ones.
output	{"format":"prose"}

Preventive and Defensive Goals Handler

Input: $ARGUMENTS

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Overview

Handler for goals focused on PREVENTING bad outcomes rather than achieving good ones. These are uniquely challenging because: success is invisible (nothing bad happened), hard to know if prevention worked or threat never materialized, easy to underinvest because ROI is hard to measure, motivation decreases when threat seems distant.

Steps

Step 1: Define the Threat

1. What bad outcome are you trying to prevent?
2. How likely is it without intervention? (Base rate)
3. How severe would it be? (Impact)
4. How detectable is it approaching? (Early warning possible?)
5. How reversible is it once it happens? (Can you recover?)

THREAT PROFILE:
Threat: [specific bad outcome]
Likelihood (no intervention): [1-5]
Severity: [1-5]
Detectability: [easy / moderate / hard / impossible until too late]
Reversibility: [easy / hard / irreversible]
Risk score: Likelihood × Severity = [score]

Step 2: Classify Prevention Type

Type	Description	Strategy
Elimination	Remove the threat entirely	Change circumstances so threat can't occur
Reduction	Lower probability	Reduce exposure, add safeguards
Mitigation	Lower impact if it occurs	Insurance, buffers, backup plans
Detection	Catch it early	Monitoring, check-ups, alerts
Recovery	Bounce back faster	Resilience, redundancy, reserves

Most prevention plans need ALL five layers (defense in depth).

Step 3: Design Prevention Layers

Layer 1 — Elimination: Can the threat be completely removed?

• Change the situation so the threat doesn't apply
• Remove exposure to the risk source
• If elimination is possible, DO THIS FIRST

Layer 2 — Reduction: If not eliminated, reduce probability:

• What behaviors reduce the risk?
• What systems/habits make the bad outcome less likely?
• What environmental changes reduce exposure?

Layer 3 — Mitigation: If it happens anyway, limit damage:

• Insurance (financial, literal or figurative)
• Buffers (time, money, energy reserves)
• Containment (prevent cascade to other areas)

Layer 4 — Detection: Catch it approaching:

• What are the early warning signs?
• How often should you check?
• What monitoring can be automated?
• Who else can help you notice?

Layer 5 — Recovery: If worst case happens:

• What's the recovery plan?
• What resources help recovery?
• What support systems exist?
• How long would recovery take?

Step 4: Solve the Motivation Problem

Prevention fails because people lose motivation when threats seem distant.

Strategies to maintain prevention behavior:

1. Make it habitual: Tie prevention to existing routines
2. Make it automatic: Systems > willpower (auto-savings, auto-backups)
3. Make it social: Accountability partners, group commitments
4. Make it visible: Track prevention activities (not just outcomes)
5. Scheduled reviews: Calendar regular threat reassessments
6. Near-miss tracking: Document times prevention worked to reinforce value

Step 5: Define Success Metrics

Since "nothing happened" is hard to measure:

Metric Type	What to Measure	Example
Leading indicators	Prevention activities performed	"Exercised 4x this week"
Risk indicators	Threat level changes	"Blood pressure reading normal"
Near-miss tracking	Times threat was close but prevented	"Caught issue before it became problem"
Capacity indicators	Buffer levels	"Emergency fund at 6 months"
System health	Prevention system functioning	"All backups running, checks completed"

Step 6: Report

PREVENTIVE GOAL ANALYSIS:
Threat: [what you're preventing]
Risk score: [likelihood × severity]

Prevention layers:
1. Elimination: [can threat be removed? how?]
2. Reduction: [how to lower probability]
3. Mitigation: [how to limit damage]
4. Detection: [early warning system]
5. Recovery: [bounce-back plan]

Motivation system:
- Habit: [tied to what routine]
- Automation: [what's automatic]
- Review schedule: [how often to reassess]

Success metrics:
1. [metric] — current: [value] — target: [value]

Investment required: [ongoing cost of prevention]
Cost of failure to prevent: [what happens without prevention]
ROI: [cost of prevention vs expected cost of failure × probability]

When to Use

• Goal is about avoiding/preventing something
• Success = absence of bad outcome
• Currently okay but worried about future
• Building buffers/resilience/insurance
• → INVOKE: /afa (anticipated failures analysis) for systematic threat identification
• → INVOKE: /snp (scenario planning) for preparing for multiple futures
• → INVOKE: /rm (risk management) for risk-based prioritization

Verification

• Threat clearly defined with likelihood and severity
• All 5 prevention layers addressed
• Motivation maintenance strategy included
• Success metrics are measurable (not just "nothing bad happened")
• ROI of prevention calculated (prevention cost vs failure cost)
• Review schedule established