菜单
Use when running experiments on platforms where user value compounds over time, when growth teams claim credit for revenue that would have happened anyway, or when short-term wins don't translate to long-term value
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基于 SOC 职业分类
Use when designing AI agent products, defining roadmaps for agentic workflows, or evaluating how to evolve AI from passive tool to proactive partner in software development
Shift from rigid roles (PM, Designer, Engineer) towards a model where individuals use AI to bridge skill gaps, enabling smaller and flatter teams. Use in early-stage startups or innovation units where speed is critical.
Use when designing AI agents or chatbots, when raw model outputs feel like a black box, or when building natural language interfaces that need structure and trust
Use when building AI-powered products or agents, when raw model intelligence isn't enough to solve user problems, or when designing the architecture for agentic workflows
View yourself as an entity with infinite dimensions rather than a single good/bad identity. Strengths and weaknesses are often the same trait in different contexts. Use during performance reviews or when receiving tough feedback.
Review your calendar, color-code activities by energy impact (Green/Red), and systematically delegate draining tasks to maximize time in your Zone of Genius.
| name | long-horizon-holdout |
| description | Use when running experiments on platforms where user value compounds over time, when growth teams claim credit for revenue that would have happened anyway, or when short-term wins don't translate to long-term value |
A measurement framework that challenges short-term growth wins by maintaining long-term control groups (holdouts) to verify if immediate lifts translate to sustainable value over 1-3 years.
Core principle: 30-40% of short-term "wins" show neutral or zero impact long-term.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ T-0 (Launch) │
│ Split Traffic: 90% Treatment / 10% Long-term Holdout │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ T+3 Weeks │
│ Initial Decision: Ship if short-term positive/neutral │
│ Keep holdout running │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ T+6 Months │
│ Automated Ping: Check retention and emerging GMV patterns │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ T+12-18 Months │
│ Final Reckoning: Compare Cohort GMV │
│ If neutral/negative: deprecate feature or pivot strategy │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
| Principle | Description |
|---|---|
| Long holdout | Keep control group for 12-18 months |
| Automated pings | System reminds team to check at 6, 12 months |
| Cohort GMV focus | Long-term value, not short-term conversion |
| Accept reversals | Be willing to deprecate "successful" features |
Source: Archie Abrams (Shopify VP Product & Growth) via Lenny's Podcast