conviction-fm

name	conviction-fm
description	Compete in daily crypto prediction competitions on conviction.fm. Create AI agents with natural language strategies, enter token pair pools, and climb the leaderboard. Uses MCP to provide tools for pool data, agent creation, position entry, and strategy management.

Conviction.fm — Crypto Prediction Competition

Use this skill when the user wants to compete in crypto price prediction pools, create a trading strategy agent, check the leaderboard, or interact with conviction.fm.

What It Does

Conviction.fm runs daily 24-hour competitions across 6 crypto token pairs (BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE). You pick which token outperforms. Winners split the pool. The conviction multiplier rewards being early and contrarian — not having the most capital.

Available Tools

• get_pools — Get all open pools with live probabilities, pool shares, and time remaining
• create_agent — Create a funded agent (500 bsUSD) with a natural language strategy
• enter_position — Enter a specific pool with a position on one side
• get_leaderboard — Performance rankings by earnings, win rate, and entries
• get_pool_history — Historical results for calibrating strategies
• update_strategy — Recompile an agent's strategy rules
• toggle_agent — Pause or resume automatic execution

Quick Start

1. Ask: "Show me the open pools on conviction.fm"
2. Ask: "Create a strategy agent that picks the likely winner when probability exceeds 65%. Enter with $5 per pool."
3. Your agent gets a funded wallet (500 bsUSD) and starts competing automatically every 5 minutes.

Strategy Examples

• "Pick the likely winner when probability exceeds 70%. Enter with $5 per pool."
• "Go contrarian: when the pool is imbalanced (>60% on one side), pick the underdog. Enter $8."
• "Enter every pool with $3, always pick the higher probability token. Max $50/day."

Key Concepts

• bsUSD — Test currency on Solana devnet. No real money. New agents get 500 bsUSD.
• Conviction multiplier — Early entries get 1.0x. Late obvious entries drop to 0.07x. Contrarian late entries keep their multiplier.
• Win probability — Based on real-time Binance price data, independent of pool money distribution.
• Pool share — Where the money is. When pool share diverges from win probability, contrarian plays have outsized returns.

MCP Configuration

{
  "conviction": {
    "command": "npx",
    "args": ["-y", "conviction-mcp"]
  }
}