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Quantum computing risk assessment framework for cryptocurrency investments - Monte-Carlo forecasting of quantum threat timelines, exposure analysis, and post-quantum migration pathways
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| name | quantum-crypto-investment-risk |
| category | finance |
| description | Quantum computing risk assessment framework for cryptocurrency investments - Monte-Carlo forecasting of quantum threat timelines, exposure analysis, and post-quantum migration pathways |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| created | 2026-06-27 |
| source_paper | arXiv:2606.14484 |
Framework for assessing quantum computing threats to cryptocurrency investments using the "Quantum Horizon" methodology from arXiv:2606.14484 (Gershteyn & Alber, 2026). Separates Shor's algorithm threats (signature breaking) from Grover's algorithm threats (mining), provides probabilistic timelines, and maps exposure/migration pathways.
Combine four factors into bimodal arrival distribution for cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC):
Probabilities:
Bitcoin exposure:
Ethereum exposure:
| Threat Type | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signature breakage (Shor) | High (60% by 2050) | Catastrophic | Post-quantum signature migration |
| Mining disruption (Grover) | Low (quadratic only) | Moderate | Already accounted for |
| Governance failure | Medium | Catastrophic | Protocol upgrade coordination |
For each crypto asset:
1. Identify signature algorithm (ECDSA, EdDSA, BLS, etc.)
2. Calculate % of coins at reusable/derived addresses
3. Estimate migration friction (protocol complexity, governance readiness)
4. Score: 0 (fully quantum-safe) to 100 (fully exposed, no migration path)
Risk discount factor = Σ P(CRQC at year t) × Impact(t)
Where:
- P(CRQC) = probability from Monte-Carlo forecast
- Impact(t) = function of migration readiness at time t
- Discount to present value
The binding constraint is governance, not technology. A timely post-quantum migration beats even an optimistic 2035 CRQC timeline. Assets with strong governance mechanisms for protocol upgrades are significantly more quantum-resilient.
Trigger words: quantum threat bitcoin, quantum ethereum, crypto quantum risk, post-quantum crypto, Shor algorithm crypto, quantum timeline, quantum-resistant blockchain, cryptocurrency quantum vulnerability
Use cases: