sales-forecaster

name	sales-forecaster
description	Satış tahmini. Pipeline analysis, weighted forecast, scenario planning ve trend adjustment.
triggers	{"keywords":["sales forecast","satış tahmini","pipeline analysis","revenue forecasting","quota attainment"]}
auto_load_when	Kullanıcı satış tahmini, pipeline analizi, weighted forecast veya revenue planning talep ettiğinde
agent	researcher
tools	["Read","Write","Grep","Glob"]

Sales Forecaster (Satış Tahmin Uzmanı)

Odak Alanı: Satış pipeline analizi yapmak, weighted forecasting uygulamak, senaryo planlaması oluşturmak ve trendleri değerlendirmek.

---

Pattern 1: Pipeline Analysis Framework

1.1 Pipeline Metrics

Pipeline Health Metrics:
├── Pipeline Coverage
│   ├── Formula: Pipeline Value / Quota
│   ├── Healthy range: 3-4x quota
│   ├── Warning signs: <3x coverage
│   └── Action: Ramp pipeline or adjust quota
│
├── Pipeline Velocity
│   ├── Time in stage analysis
│   ├── Average cycle time
│   ├── Stage conversion rates
│   └── Bottleneck identification
│
├── Pipeline Quality
│   ├── Qualified vs unqualified
│   ├── Weighted value vs nominal
│   ├── Recent vs stale deals
│   └── Champion presence
│
└── Deal Distribution
    ├── Deal size distribution
    ├── Stage distribution
    ├── Rep performance variance
    └── Seasonal patterns

1.2 Pipeline Analysis Tree

Pipeline Health Assessment:
├── Stage-by-Stage Analysis
│   ├── Stage 1: Lead to Qualification
│   │   ├── Conversion rate: target >40%
│   │   ├── Avg time: <7 days
│   │   └── Quality: Clear criteria met
│   │
│   ├── Stage 2: Qualification to Proposal
│   │   ├── Conversion rate: target >60%
│   │   ├── Avg time: <14 days
│   │   └── Quality: Budget confirmed
│   │
│   ├── Stage 3: Proposal to Negotiation
│   │   ├── Conversion rate: target >50%
│   │   ├── Avg time: <21 days
│   │   └── Quality: Proposal sent
│   │
│   └── Stage 4: Negotiation to Close
│       ├── Conversion rate: target >70%
│       ├── Avg time: <14 days
│       └── Quality: Verbal commitment
│
├── Risk Assessment
│   ├── Stale deals (>30 days no activity)
│   ├── Large deals without champion
│   ├── Deals stuck in same stage
│   └── Competitor involvement
│
└── Opportunity Scoring
    ├── Deal score calculation
    ├── Weighted pipeline value
    └── Forecast confidence

1.3 Pipeline Categorization

Deal Categorization:
├── Strong (90-100% close probability)
│   ├── Verbal commitment received
│   ├── Contract drafted
│   ├── Budget approved
│   └── No major obstacles
│
├── Likely (60-89% close probability)
│   ├── Clear need identified
│   ├── Decision maker engaged
│   ├── Budget allocated
│   └── Timeline confirmed
│
├── Possible (30-59% close probability)
│   ├── Interest demonstrated
│   ├── Multiple stakeholders
│   ├── Budget potential
│   └── Timeline potential
│
└── Weak (<30% close probability)
    ├── Early stage
    ├── No decision maker
    ├── No budget identified
    └── Timeline unclear

---

Pattern 2: Weighted Forecast Model

2.1 Weighted Pipeline Calculation

Weighted Pipeline Formula:
Weighted Value = Σ (Deal Value × Probability)

Example Calculation:
├── Deal A: $50,000 × 90% = $45,000
├── Deal B: $30,000 × 60% = $18,000
├── Deal C: $80,000 × 40% = $32,000
├── Deal D: $25,000 × 20% = $5,000
├── Deal E: $100,000 × 10% = $10,000
│
└── Total Weighted: $110,000

2.2 Stage-Based Probability

Standard Probability by Stage:
├── Prospecting (New): 10%
├── Qualification: 20%
├── Needs Analysis: 30%
├── Proposal: 50%
├── Negotiation: 75%
├── Closed Won: 100%
└── Closed Lost: 0%

Custom Probability Adjustments:
├── High Confidence Deals (+10-20%)
│   ├── Champion in place
│   ├── Budget approved
│   └── Competitive win likely
│
├── Low Confidence Deals (-10-20%)
│   ├── No champion
│   ├── Budget uncertain
│   └── Competitor favorite
│
└── Stale Deals (reduce by stage)
    ├── 30+ days no activity: -10%
    ├── 60+ days no activity: -20%
    └── 90+ days no activity: -30%

2.3 Confidence Levels

Forecast Confidence Scoring:
├── High Confidence (Score 8-10)
│   ├── >80% weighted probability
│   ├── Decision maker engaged
│   ├── Timeline confirmed
│   └── Budget approved
│
├── Medium Confidence (Score 5-7)
│   ├── 50-80% weighted probability
│   ├── Multiple stakeholders engaged
│   ├── Budget likely
│   └── Timeline reasonable
│
└── Low Confidence (Score 1-4)
    ├── <50% weighted probability
    ├── Early in process
    ├── No budget confirmed
    └── Timeline unclear

---

Pattern 3: Scenario Planning

3.1 Scenario Tree

Forecast Scenarios:
├── Best Case Scenario
│   ├── All "Strong" deals close
│   ├── 80% of "Likely" deals close
│   ├── 50% of "Possible" deals close
│   └── Weather: Strong pipeline, good economy
│
├── Expected Case Scenario
│   ├── All "Strong" deals close
│   ├── 60% of "Likely" deals close
│   ├── 30% of "Possible" deals close
│   └── Weather: Normal pipeline, stable economy
│
├── Conservative Case Scenario
│   ├── All "Strong" deals close
│   ├── 40% of "Likely" deals close
│   ├── 10% of "Possible" deals close
│   └── Weather: Pipeline challenges, uncertain economy
│
└── Worst Case Scenario
    ├── 80% of "Strong" deals close
    ├── 20% of "Likely" deals close
    └── No "Possible" deals close

3.2 Scenario Selection Framework

Choosing Scenario:
├── Based on Historical Accuracy
│   ├── Track actual vs forecast
│   ├── Calculate variance by scenario
│   ├── Adjust based on accuracy
│   └── Document patterns
│
├── Based on Current Pipeline
│   ├── Pipeline coverage ratio
│   ├── Weighted pipeline vs quota
│   ├── Deal quality assessment
│   └── Risk factors
│
├── Based on Market Conditions
│   ├── Economic outlook
│   ├── Industry trends
│   ├── Competitive landscape
│   └── Seasonal factors
│
└── Based on Rep Performance
    ├── Individual track record
    ├── Forecast accuracy by rep
    ├── Historical conversion rates
    └── Pipeline quality by rep

---

Pattern 4: Trend Adjustment

4.1 Trend Analysis

Trend Indicators:
├── Year-over-Year (YoY)
│   ├── Compare to same period last year
│   ├── Adjust for seasonality
│   └── Calculate growth rate
│
├── Month-over-Month (MoM)
│   ├── Track month-to-month changes
│   ├── Identify patterns
│   └── Adjust for anomalies
│
├── Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ)
│   ├── Quarterly performance
│   ├── Quarter-end patterns
│   └── Quarter projection
│
└── Rolling Average
    ├── 3-month rolling average
    ├── 6-month rolling average
    ├── 12-month rolling average
    └── Trend direction

4.2 Adjustment Factors

Seasonal Adjustments:
├── Q1 Adjustments
│   ├── January: Slow (post-holiday)
│   ├── February: Building
│   ├── March: Strong (quarter-end)
│
├── Q2 Adjustments
│   ├── April: Moderate
│   ├── May: Building
│   ├── June: Strong (quarter-end)
│
├── Q3 Adjustments
│   ├── July: Slow (summer)
│   ├── August: Building
│   ├── September: Strong (quarter-end)
│
└── Q4 Adjustments
    ├── October: Strong
    ├── November: Very strong
    └── December: Last push

Trend Adjustment Formula:
Adjusted Forecast = Base Forecast × (1 + Trend Factor) × (1 + Seasonality)

4.3 Anomaly Detection

Anomaly Types:
├── Positive Anomalies
│   ├── Unexpected large deals
│   ├── Unusual win rate spike
│   ├── Accelerated timeline
│   └── Competitor displacement
│
├── Negative Anomalies
│   ├── Unexpected losses
│   ├── Extended sales cycles
│   ├── Budget freezes
│   └── Competitor wins
│
└── Handling Anomalies
    ├── Identify root cause
    ├── Decide to include/exclude
    ├── Document in forecast
    └── Adjust confidence level

---

Pattern 5: Forecast Reporting

5.1 Dashboard Metrics

Forecast Dashboard:
├── Pipeline Metrics
│   ├── Total pipeline value
│   ├── Weighted pipeline value
│   ├── Pipeline coverage
│   └── Pipeline velocity
│
├── Forecast Metrics
│   ├── Best case
│   ├── Expected case
│   ├── Conservative case
│   ├── Commit (guaranteed)
│   └── Best estimate
│
├── Performance Metrics
│   ├── Quota attainment
│   ├── Attainment vs forecast
│   ├── Win rate
│   └── Average deal size
│
└── Risk Metrics
    ├── At-risk deals
    ├── Stale deals
    ├── Deal slippage
    └── Conversion by stage

5.2 Forecasting Best Practices

Forecast Cadence:
├── Weekly
│   ├── Rep-level deal review
│   ├── Pipeline health check
│   └── Updated probabilities
│
├── Monthly
│   ├── Forecast review meeting
│   ├── Trend analysis
│   └── Adjustments
│
├── Quarterly
│   ├── Full forecast refresh
│   ├── Scenario planning
│   ├── Quota setting input
│   └── Executive review
│
└── Annual
    ├── Strategic planning
    ├── Market-based adjustments
    └── Multi-year projections

---

Key Patterns (Özet)

Pattern	Odak	Uygulama
Pipeline Analysis	Health metrics	Coverage, velocity, quality
Weighted Forecast	Probability	Deal scoring, stage weights
Senaryo Planlama	Best/expected/conservative	Multiple outcomes
Trend Adjustment	Time-based	YoY, MoQ, seasonality
Raporlama	Dashboard	Weekly + monthly + quarterly

---

Anti-Patterns

❌ Yasaklı Yaklaşımlar

Forecast errors:
  - Pipeline-only forecasting
  - No confidence levels
  - Ignoring historical accuracy
  - No scenario planning
  
Process errors:
  - Infrequent updates
  - No rep accountability
  - Disconnected from reality
  - Not adjusting for anomalies

✅ Doğru Yaklaşımlar

Best practices:
  - Weighted pipeline methodology
  - Multiple scenarios
  - Confidence levels
  - Regular updates
  
Validation:
  - Track actual vs forecast
  - Analyze variance
  - Adjust methodology
  - Document assumptions

---

Quick Reference

Stage	Probability	Weighted
Prospecting	10%	Deal × 0.10
Qualification	20%	Deal × 0.20
Proposal	50%	Deal × 0.50
Negotiation	75%	Deal × 0.75
Closed Won	100%	Full value

Metric	Target	Warning
Pipeline coverage	3-4x quota	<3x
Win rate	>30%	<20%
Forecast accuracy	>85%	<70%
Avg sales cycle	Industry avg	>20% vs avg

Scenario	Use When	Adjustment
Best case	Strong pipeline	+20-30%
Expected	Normal	Base
Conservative	Weak pipeline	-20-30%
Worst case	Crisis	-40%+

Frequency	Task	Owner
Weekly	Deal review	Rep/Manager
Monthly	Forecast review	Sales Lead
Quarterly	Full refresh	Sales Ops
Annual	Strategic	VP Sales

🌍 Universal Language Support

• Turkish Native: This skill natively supports Turkish. If the user prompt is in Turkish, all analysis, formatting, and output MUST be entirely in Turkish. You do not need explicit "write in Turkish" instructions.