judge-long-distance-military-campaign

# Judge Long-Distance Military Campaign ## Overview A framework for evaluating surprise attacks on distant targets, recognizing inherent risks. Based on the failed Qin attack on Zheng. ## Steps 1. **Receive Intelligence** - Evaluate claims about target vulnerability - Consider the reliability of informants 2. **Assess Distance Factors** - Calculate the distance to target - Consider how many territories must be crossed - Recognize that long-distance surprise attacks rarely succeed 3. **Consider Information Security** - If someone is selling intelligence, they might also sell to your enemy - Assume the target may already be warned 4. **Consult Experienced Advisors** - Seek opinions from those with military experience - Consider objections seriously rather than dismissing them 5. **Make the Decision** - Weigh potential gains against high risks - Consider alternatives 6. **Prepare Contingencies** - If proceeding, plan for discovery - Have alternative objectives if primary target is forewarned ## Warning Signs - Informants offering to betray their own state may be unreliable - Long supply lines through multiple states create vulnerabilities - Overconfidence in secrecy often leads to disaster ## Expected Outcomes - Avoided catastrophic defeats from overextended campaigns - Better allocation of military resources - Preserved forces for more achievable objectives ## Validation - Verify that intelligence sources were evaluated for reliability and potential double-dealing before committing forces - Confirm that experienced military advisors were consulted and their objections formally considered - Check that contingency plans with alternative objectives exist in case the primary target is forewarned