| name | judge-long-distance-military-campaign |
| description | Use when evaluating the feasibility of a long-distance surprise military attack. Assesses distance risks, intelligence reliability, supply line vulnerabilities, and contingency planning. Based on Qin's failed attack on Zheng as a cautionary example. |
Judge Long-Distance Military Campaign
Overview
A framework for evaluating surprise attacks on distant targets, recognizing inherent risks. Based on the failed Qin attack on Zheng.
Steps
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Receive Intelligence
- Evaluate claims about target vulnerability
- Consider the reliability of informants
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Assess Distance Factors
- Calculate the distance to target
- Consider how many territories must be crossed
- Recognize that long-distance surprise attacks rarely succeed
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Consider Information Security
- If someone is selling intelligence, they might also sell to your enemy
- Assume the target may already be warned
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Consult Experienced Advisors
- Seek opinions from those with military experience
- Consider objections seriously rather than dismissing them
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Make the Decision
- Weigh potential gains against high risks
- Consider alternatives
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Prepare Contingencies
- If proceeding, plan for discovery
- Have alternative objectives if primary target is forewarned
Warning Signs
- Informants offering to betray their own state may be unreliable
- Long supply lines through multiple states create vulnerabilities
- Overconfidence in secrecy often leads to disaster
Expected Outcomes
- Avoided catastrophic defeats from overextended campaigns
- Better allocation of military resources
- Preserved forces for more achievable objectives
Validation
- Verify that intelligence sources were evaluated for reliability and potential double-dealing before committing forces
- Confirm that experienced military advisors were consulted and their objections formally considered
- Check that contingency plans with alternative objectives exist in case the primary target is forewarned
