defi-overview

<!-- autoresearch: variation B — sharper output via regime verdict + Market Take + sustainable-vs-incentive yield split + fees fundamentals + per-mover "why it matters". Consolidated: folds in defi-monitor (tracked-protocol positions/health) and market-context (broad crypto macro + memory/topics/market-context.md refresh) so one run covers positions + macro in a single pass. --> > **${var}** — Scope selector. **Empty → full combined overview** (tracked-protocol positions + macro context). `positions` → positions facet only (all watched positions); `positions:<label>` → a single tracked position by label. `macro` → macro facet only. **Any other value** → treat as a chain or protocol focus (e.g. `solana`, `aave`, `arbitrum`) applied to the macro read; positions are filtered to that chain when applicable. Read `memory/MEMORY.md` for context. Read the last 2 days of `memory/logs/` to avoid repeating numbers, to diff position values over time, and to cite yesterday's figure when flagging today's change. Read `memory/on-chain-watches.yml` (tracked positions) and the existing `memory/topics/market-context.md` (prior macro snapshot) — both are inputs below. ## Thesis The original produced a table of numbers. This version produces a **read of the market**: one verdict line at the top, then only items that *changed* or *matter*, each with a one-line reason a reader should care. TVL alone is lagging and emission-subsidized — we pair it with fees/revenue (real fundamentals) and split yields into sustainable (`apyBase`) vs incentive-driven (`apyReward`) so readers stop chasing scam-tier APYs. On top of the market read this skill also (a) checks the operator's **tracked-protocol positions** for health/liquidation/yield-drift risk, and (b) refreshes the **decision-ready macro context** file that downstream skills (token-pick, narrative-tracker) consume — all in one pass. ## Facets & var routing The skill has two facets. `${var}` selects which run and how to scope them: - **Empty** → run **both** facets: Positions **and** Macro. This is the comprehensive default. - `positions` → **Positions facet only**, all watched positions. - `positions:<label>` → Positions facet only, restricted to the position whose `label` matches `<label>`. - `macro` → **Macro facet only** (DeFi market read + broad crypto context + `market-context.md` refresh). - **Any other value** → Macro facet, run in **focus mode**: - matches a chain name in `/v2/chains` (case-insensitive) → chain focus: scope DEX volume, fees, and yields to that chain; keep a 2-line market header for context; filter positions (if the Positions facet also runs) to that chain. - matches a protocol slug in `/protocols` → protocol focus: pull `/protocol/{slug}`, `/summary/fees/{slug}`, `/summary/dexs/{slug}` if it is a DEX; compare against its chain and its 30-day self. - matches neither → proceed as a full macro overview and note `var unresolved: ${var}` in the footer. When both facets run (empty var), send **one** combined notification (Take → position alerts if any → DeFi read → macro snapshot) and still write `memory/topics/market-context.md`. --- # FACET A — Positions (tracked-protocol health) *(Runs when `${var}` is empty, `positions`, `positions:<label>`, or a chain focus. Skip entirely for `macro`.)* ## Position config Watched contracts and positions live **entirely** in `memory/on-chain-watches.yml` — no protocols are hardcoded in this skill. If the file is missing or has no `type: pool` / `type: position` entries, log `DEFI_MONITOR_NO_CONFIG` for this facet and skip it cleanly (no notification — an empty config is not an error; the Macro facet still runs when applicable). ```yaml # memory/on-chain-watches.yml watches: - label: My Wallet address: "0x1234...abcd" chain: ethereum rpc_url: https://eth.llamarpc.com type: wallet threshold: 0.1 # ETH — alert on balance changes above this - label: Uniswap Pool address: "0xabcd...5678" chain: ethereum rpc_url: https://eth.llamarpc.com type: contract ``` ## Steps — Positions ### A1. Query each DeFi position For each DeFi position in `memory/on-chain-watches.yml` (`type: pool` or `type: position`), filtered by `${var}` if a label (`positions:<label>`) or chain focus is set: - Query the contract for current state using `eth_call`: ```bash # Example: read slot0 from a Uniswap-style pool curl -s -X POST "${rpc_url}" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","method":"eth_call","params":[{"to":"'"$address"'","data":"'"$calldata"'"},"latest"],"id":1}' ``` - For known protocols, query standard view functions: - Liquidity pools: `totalSupply`, reserves, current tick/price - Lending: `supplyRate`, `borrowRate`, utilization - Staking: earned rewards, APR ### A2. Compare against last logged values Compare current values against the last logged values for each position (grep prior runs in `memory/logs/`). ### A3. Flag anything noteworthy - Yield rate change > 20% - Pool TVL drop > 10% - Position approaching liquidation - Impermanent loss exceeding threshold ### A4. Positions output - **`positions` / `positions:<label>` run:** notify via `./notify` (under 4000 chars) **only if** at least one position produced a noteworthy flag; otherwise log `DEFI_MONITOR_OK` and end (no notification on a quiet run). - **Combined (empty var) run:** the positions block is included in the single combined notification **only when there is at least one flag**; a quiet positions check contributes nothing to the message (but still logs its per-position values). Positions block template: ``` *DeFi Monitor — ${today}* *Pool/Protocol Label* (chain) TVL: $X | APR: Y% Your position: details Change since last check: summary ``` --- # FACET B — Macro (DeFi market read + crypto context) *(Runs when `${var}` is empty, `macro`, or a chain/protocol focus. Skip entirely for `positions` / `positions:<label>`.)* ## Steps — Macro ### B0. Load prior macro snapshot (for deltas + preserve-on-failure) Read the existing `memory/topics/market-context.md` if present. Extract, for delta computation later: - BTC price, ETH price, Total mcap, BTC dominance, Total TVL, Fear & Greed value, and the prior DEX 24h volume. - The full **Token Picks Made** table (never truncate — you will rebuild the new file with this table intact). If the file doesn't exist, treat all deltas as `n/a` on the first run. ### B1. Fetch (public, no auth — use WebFetch if curl fails) ```bash mkdir -p .tmp # --- DeFiLlama (shared by the DeFi read and the macro snapshot) --- # TVL curl -fsS "https://api.llama.fi/v2/chains" > .tmp/chains.json curl -fsS "https://api.llama.fi/protocols" > .tmp/protocols.json # Volumes & fundamentals curl -fsS "https://api.llama.fi/overview/dexs?excludeTotalDataChart=true&excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true" > .tmp/dexs.json curl -fsS "https://api.llama.fi/overview/fees?excludeTotalDataChart=true&excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true" > .tmp/fees.json # Stablecoins — includePrices=true (superset; supply totals feed the DeFi read, prices feed the macro snapshot) curl -fsS "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoins?includePrices=true" > .tmp/stables.json # Yields curl -fsS "https://yields.llama.fi/pools" > .tmp/pools.json # --- CoinGecko (macro majors, breadth, global, trending) --- # Send the demo key via ./secretcurl's {ENV_NAME} placeholder only when set — a bare # $COINGECKO_API_KEY is refused by the Bash permission analyzer; keyless-public works # without one (lower rate limit). Build the header array once, reuse for all four. CG_HDR=(); [ -n "${COINGECKO_API_KEY:+x}" ] && CG_HDR=(-H "x-cg-demo-api-key: {COINGECKO_API_KEY}") # Simple price for BTC, ETH, SOL + 24h change + mcap ./secretcurl -s "${CG_HDR[@]}" "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin,ethereum,solana&vs_currencies=usd&include_24hr_change=true&include_market_cap=true" > .tmp/cg_price.json # Top 20 by mcap (movers + trend, 24h & 7d) ./secretcurl -s "${CG_HDR[@]}" "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=20&page=1&sparkline=false&price_change_percentage=24h,7d" > .tmp/cg_markets.json # Global stats (total mcap, volume, dominance) ./secretcurl -s "${CG_HDR[@]}" "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/global" > .tmp/cg_global.json # Trending coins ./secretcurl -s "${CG_HDR[@]}" "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/search/trending" > .tmp/cg_trending.json # --- Fear & Greed --- curl -s "https://api.alternative.me/fng/?limit=2" > .tmp/fng.json # --- Polymarket Gamma (prediction markets) --- curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=10" > .tmp/poly_vol.json curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&order=liquidity&ascending=false&limit=10" > .tmp/poly_liq.json ``` For each endpoint, if curl fails or returns non-JSON, retry once with **WebFetch** against the same URL (for CoinGecko, WebFetch without the API-key header — free tiers work). Mark each source `ok` or `fail` and carry it into the footer / Source Status line. Never block the whole run on a single source. Notes on fields: - `/protocols` and `/v2/chains` already include `change_1d` / `change_7d` / `tvl` — use these directly, do not diff manually. `/overview/dexs` and `/overview/fees` return `total24h`, `total7d`, `change_1d`, `change_7d`, `change_1m`, `protocols[]`. - If `${var}` is a **chain** focus, additionally fetch `/overview/dexs/{chain}` and `/overview/fees/{chain}` and filter pools by `chain == var`. - If `${var}` is a **protocol** focus, additionally fetch `/protocol/{slug}`, `/summary/fees/{slug}`, and `/summary/dexs/{slug}` (if a DEX). - From `/coins/markets` compute **breadth**: how many of the top 20 are green on 24h vs 7d. Breadth is a regime signal — 18/20 green = risk-on, 4/20 green = risk-off. ### B2. WebSearch — macro catalysts (2 queries only; noise is expensive) Use the built-in **WebSearch** tool for exactly: - `crypto market today ${today} macro catalyst` - `BTC ETF flows ${today}` (institutional flow signal) Keep only items that would change a trader's positioning **today**. Discard recap/explainer articles. Mark `websearch=ok|fail`. ### B3. Compute the DeFi regime verdict (ONE line) Score three dimensions from the last 24h: - `tvl_d = overall TVL change_1d` (sum across `/v2/chains`) - `vol_d = DEX volume change_1d` (from `/overview/dexs`) - `stable_d = stablecoin supply change_1d` (sum from `/stablecoins`) Verdict rules (pick the first that matches): - All three > +2% → **Risk-on** — capital flowing in across TVL, volume, and stables. - Two of three < −2% → **Risk-off** — capital unwinding. - `|tvl_d| < 1% AND |vol_d| < 5%` → **Sideways** — no conviction; grind day. - Otherwise → **Mixed** — describe the split in ≤12 words (e.g. "TVL drifting up on steady volume, stables flat"). ### B4. Compute the Market Take (the macro headline) The Take is the core macro output — everything else is input to it. **Market Take format (exactly 3 lines):** ``` Take: <regime> — <one-sentence why, citing 2 concrete numbers>. Conviction: <high | medium | low> — <which signals agree; which disagree>. Evidence: <one sentence naming the single strongest datum behind this call>. ``` Example: ``` Take: risk-on — BTC +3.1% 24h with 17/20 top-cap majors green. Conviction: high — F&G, breadth, and 7d TVL all point up; only BTC dominance disagrees (flat). Evidence: DEX 24h volume $7.8B, highest since March and +42% vs 7d avg. ``` Score the regime using these inputs: - **BTC 24h%** (±2% threshold) - **Breadth** (top-20 green count) - **Fear & Greed** (today vs yesterday; buckets: 0-24 Extreme Fear, 25-49 Fear, 50-74 Greed, 75-100 Extreme Greed) - **BTC dominance 24h change** (from `/global`) - **TVL 7d delta** (DeFiLlama) - **DEX volume** vs the prior snapshot's DEX volume Assign one regime label: - **risk-on** — BTC up, breadth >14/20, F&G ≥55 and rising, TVL up 7d - **risk-off** — BTC down, breadth <7/20, F&G ≤45 and falling - **rotation** — BTC flat or dominance falling while breadth high (alts outperforming) - **chop** — no single signal dominates; small moves, flat F&G - **capitulation / squeeze** — only if BTC ±5%+ in 24h with F&G extreme Also emit **conviction** in {high, medium, low} based on how many signals agree. ### B5. Pick what goes in the DeFi read Each section caps at 3 items. **Drop any section whose best item fails its inclusion rule** — don't pad. - **Top chains** (3): rank by TVL; show `change_1d` only if `|change_1d| >= 1%`, otherwise suppress the delta. - **Movers — chains** (1 up, 1 down): filter `|change_1d| >= 5% AND tvl >= $500M`. Require a ≤15-word "why" grounded in observed data (unlock, points program, bridge activity, depeg, exploit, launch). If you can't name a cause from data or memory, write `"no obvious catalyst"` — do not invent one. - **Movers — protocols** (1 up, 1 down): filter `|change_1d| >= 10% AND tvl >= $100M`. Same "why" rule. - **Fundamentals — fees leaders** (top 3 by 24h fees from `/overview/fees`): include `change_1d` in fees vs 7d average. Fees > TVL for real demand.