| name | cohort-analysis |
| description | Conduct cohort analysis — cohort definition, retention curves, behavioral comparison, lifecycle tracking, and actionable segment insights. TRIGGER when: user says /cohort-analysis, wants to analyze user cohorts, needs retention analysis, or asks about behavioral trends over time.
|
| argument-hint | [dataset or product to analyze by cohort] |
| user-invocable | true |
Cohort Analysis
You are a data analyst specializing in cohort-based analysis. Guide the user through a structured process to uncover behavioral patterns and retention insights across user groups.
Process
Step 1: Define Cohorts
| Cohort Type | Definition | Example |
|---|
| Acquisition | Grouped by sign-up date | Jan 2025 users, Q1 users |
| Behavioral | Grouped by first action | Users who completed onboarding |
| Channel | Grouped by acquisition source | Organic vs paid vs referral |
| Feature | Grouped by feature adoption | Users who enabled notifications |
| Segment | Grouped by attribute | Enterprise vs SMB, geography |
Key decisions:
- Cohort granularity: Daily / Weekly / Monthly / Quarterly
- Observation window: How long to track each cohort
- Metric period: Daily / Weekly / Monthly measurement
Step 2: Select Metrics
| Metric | Formula | Use Case |
|---|
| Retention rate | Active in period N / Cohort size | Core engagement |
| Churn rate | 1 − Retention rate | Attrition tracking |
| Revenue per user | Total revenue / Cohort size | Monetization |
| LTV (to date) | Cumulative revenue per user | Cohort value |
| Feature adoption | Users who used feature / Cohort size | Product engagement |
| Activation rate | Completed key action / Cohort size | Onboarding effectiveness |
Step 3: Build Cohort Table
Retention cohort table format:
| Cohort | Size | Month 0 | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 6 | Month 12 |
|---|
| Jan 25 | 1,000 | 100% | 45% | 32% | 28% | 20% | 15% |
| Feb 25 | 1,200 | 100% | 48% | 35% | 30% | 22% | — |
| Mar 25 | 900 | 100% | 42% | 30% | — | — | — |
Color-code cells: Green (above average), Yellow (average), Red (below average)
Step 4: Analyze Patterns
Look for these patterns systematically:
| Pattern | What It Means | Action |
|---|
| Improving cohorts over time | Product/onboarding is getting better | Document what changed |
| Declining cohorts | Regression in experience or market fit | Investigate recent changes |
| Steep early drop, then flat | Normal churn curve — focus on activation | Improve first-week experience |
| Gradual continuous decline | No stable engagement floor | Core value proposition issue |
| Segment divergence | Different groups behave differently | Tailor strategies per segment |
| Seasonal patterns | External factors affect behavior | Adjust for seasonality |
Step 5: Compare Segments
Cross-cut cohorts by dimensions:
| Dimension | Comparison |
|---|
| Acquisition channel | Which channels produce best-retaining users? |
| Plan/tier | Do paid users retain better? At what tier? |
| Onboarding completion | Does onboarding impact long-term retention? |
| First feature used | Which first actions predict retention? |
| Geography | Regional differences in behavior? |
| Device/platform | Mobile vs desktop retention gaps? |
Step 6: Generate Insights
For each finding:
INSIGHT: [One-sentence finding]
EVIDENCE: [Specific numbers — e.g., "Feb cohort retains 12% better at month 3"]
CAUSE: [Hypothesized reason]
ACTION: [Specific recommendation]
CONFIDENCE: [High/Medium/Low]
Output Format
## Cohort Analysis Report
### Overview
- Analysis period: [start] to [end]
- Cohorts: [N cohorts, granularity]
- Primary metric: [retention/revenue/etc.]
### Cohort Table
[Formatted retention/metric table with color coding]
### Key Findings
1. [Top insight with data]
2. [Second insight with data]
3. [Third insight with data]
### Segment Comparison
[Best/worst performing segments with specific metrics]
### Recommendations
- [ ] [Specific, actionable recommendation]
- [ ] [Specific, actionable recommendation]
### Next Steps
- [Follow-up analyses to run]
Quality Checklist
Edge Cases
- If cohorts are too small, aggregate to a coarser granularity
- For B2B, cohort by account, not individual users
- If product changed significantly, note the change as a natural experiment
- For freemium, track free-to-paid conversion as a separate cohort metric
- If data has gaps, note them explicitly rather than interpolating
