scenario-planning

name	scenario-planning
description	Use when external uncertainty is material and a single forecast would create false confidence. Use when applying the Scenario Planning consulting method and when a user asks for Scenario Planning, method execution, structured diagnosis, or action planning.
license	Apache-2.0

Scenario Planning

Use this skill to run Scenario Planning as a practical consulting method, not as a generic framework explanation.

Method Notes

• Use critical uncertainties and signposts, not predictions.
• Separate no-regret actions from contingent options.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• strategic question
• time horizon
• critical uncertainties
• known trends

If an input is missing, do not block automatically. Mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use for a short-term forecast when one outcome can be estimated reliably. Scenarios explore a small set of high-impact uncertainties; they are not predictions or collections of generic risks.

Adjacent Methods

• critical-uncertainties: identify the variables before building scenarios.
• pre-mortem: rehearse failure of one chosen plan.
• risk-matrix: prioritize known risk events.

Step-by-Step Execution

Step	Required input	How to execute	Output
Frame decision and horizon	Strategic question, time horizon, geography/market.	State what decision must stay robust across futures.	Scenario scope.
Identify uncertainties	External trends, macro forces, market shifts.	Separate relatively certain trends from high-impact uncertainties.	Uncertainty list.
Build scenarios	Top uncertainties and trends.	Create 2-4 plausible scenarios with names and narratives.	Scenario set.
Derive implications	Scenario set and business model/strategy.	Assess risks, opportunities, and constraints in each scenario.	Scenario implications.
Choose options and signposts	Implications.	Define no-regret moves, contingent bets, and early indicators.	Scenario action plan.

Output Template

### 1. Decision And Horizon
Focal decision:
Time horizon:
Geography / market:
Predetermined elements:

### 2. Critical Uncertainties
| Uncertainty | Range | Impact | Evidence | Signpost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |

### 3. Scenarios
| Scenario | Coherent conditions | Implication | Vulnerable assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |

### 4. Robust Moves And Signposts
| Move | Robust / contingent | Trigger | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |

### Evidence And Next Decision
- Confirmed facts:
- Assumptions:
- Missing evidence:
- Next action, owner, and timing:
- Expected signal and decision threshold:

Quality Gate

• Produce the method-specific outputs for Decision And Horizon, Critical Uncertainties, Scenarios; do not substitute a generic framework summary.
• Tie every material score, causal claim, or stakeholder judgment to evidence or label it as an assumption.
• Include at least one disconfirming check, sensitivity, alternative explanation, or failure condition appropriate to the method.
• Convert the result into a named action or decision with an owner or stakeholder, timing, and observable signal.
• State missing inputs and the smallest validation action instead of inventing precision.
• Keep wording professional and plain enough that a smart non-specialist can use the output directly.