Formulate strategy for emerging industries using Porter's framework. Use when industry is newly formed, has high uncertainty, no established rules, and early-stage competitors.
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Formulate strategy for emerging industries using Porter's framework. Use when industry is newly formed, has high uncertainty, no established rules, and early-stage competitors.
Strategize Emerging Industry
Formulate a competitive strategy for a firm operating in an emerging industry by diagnosing structural characteristics, building scenarios, and choosing a strategic posture (shape vs. adapt, pioneer vs. follow).
Input
Industry diagnosis from diagnose-industry-type confirming emerging classification
Firm capabilities: resources, technology position, risk tolerance, capital access
Scenario set (2-3 bounded product/technology/market scenarios)
Monitoring agenda (key signals that indicate which scenario is unfolding)
Procedure
Step 1: Confirm Emerging Industry Structural Characteristics
Check which of Porter's common structural features are present:
Technological uncertainty -- no dominant product configuration or production technology yet established
Strategic uncertainty -- firms groping with different approaches to positioning, marketing, servicing; poor information about competitors
High initial costs but steep cost reduction -- small volume drives high costs, but learning curve and scale economies produce rapid decline
Embryonic companies and spin-offs -- high proportion of newly formed firms; established firms enter later
First-time buyers -- core marketing task is inducing substitution, not competing for existing customers
Short time horizon -- bottlenecks handled expediently; "conventional wisdom" born from arbitrary early decisions
Subsidy -- government or non-government subsidies aid growth but add political instability
Early mobility barriers -- barriers stem from risk-bearing ability, technological creativity, and securing inputs/channels, NOT from brand identification, scale, or massive capital
If fewer than 3 characteristics are present, reconsider the emerging classification.
Step 2: Build Scenarios (Forecasting Under Uncertainty)
Product/technology scenarios -- estimate future cost, product variety, and performance. Select 2-3 internally consistent scenarios that bound the probable range of outcomes.
Market scenarios -- for each product/technology scenario, predict which markets will open, their size, and characteristics.
Feedback loop 1 -- the markets that open early shape how technology evolves. Iterate between product and market scenarios.
Competition scenarios -- forecast which competitors will succeed, who will enter. This feeds back again into industry direction.
Feedback loop 2 -- the nature and resources of entrants influence the direction the industry takes.
For each scenario, identify the key events that would signal it is occurring. These become the monitoring agenda.
Step 3: Shape vs. Adapt Decision
Porter: "The overriding strategic issue in emerging industries is the ability of the firm to shape industry structure."
Shape (set the rules) when the firm can:
Define product policy, marketing approach, and pricing strategy to favor its long-run position
Afford the cost of industry advocacy (promoting standardization, policing quality, presenting a united front)
Make "temporary" investments outside its ideal long-run position to develop the industry
Adapt (follow the rules) when:
The firm lacks resources to influence standards or buyer behavior
The industry structure is being shaped by a much larger player
Uncertainty is so high that flexibility is more valuable than commitment
Balance industry advocacy with firm positioning. Early on, cooperate to induce substitution and build industry credibility. As penetration grows, shift the balance toward defending the firm's own specific market position.
Step 4: Pioneer vs. Follower Timing Decision
Pioneer (early entry) is appropriate when:
Image and reputation of the firm are important to the buyer
The learning curve is steep, experience is difficult to imitate, and will not be nullified by successive technological generations
Customer loyalty will be great, so benefits accrue to the firm that sells to the customer first
Absolute cost advantages can be gained by early commitment to raw materials, distribution channels
Pioneering is too risky when:
Early competition and market segmentation will change, causing the firm to build the wrong skills with high changeover costs
Costs of opening the market (customer education, regulatory approvals, technological pioneering) cannot be made proprietary
Early competition with small firms will be costly, but these firms will be replaced by more formidable late entrants
Technological change will make early investments obsolete, giving later entrants an advantage with newest products and processes
Step 5: Formulate Strategic Moves
From the shape/adapt and pioneer/follow decisions, select from Porter's strategic priorities:
Shape industry structure -- set rules for product policy, marketing, pricing
Manage externalities -- balance industry advocacy with firm positioning; invest temporarily outside ideal position if needed to develop the industry
Exploit changing supplier/channel orientation -- as industry proves itself, suppliers and channels become more willing to invest; exploit this shift early for strategic leverage
Respond to shifting mobility barriers -- prepare to defend position with new means as early barriers (technology, creativity) erode and are replaced by scale and marketing clout
Secure tactical advantages -- early commitments to scarce raw materials; time financing to exploit capital market enthusiasm
Cope with competitors strategically -- resist the emotional urge to defend near-monopoly share; consider encouraging certain competitors or licensing technology to develop the market
During synthesis, consult reference.md for Porter's heuristics on emerging industries; before finalizing, check its failure modes.
Worked Example: Early Solar Heating Industry (circa 1980)
Structural diagnosis: All 8 characteristics present. Technological uncertainty (active vs. passive systems). Strategic uncertainty (components vs. full systems, varied distribution). High initial costs with steep decline. Embryonic companies dominate. First-time buyers requiring substitution from conventional heating. Government subsidies adding political instability. Early barriers: technological creativity, risk tolerance.
Scenarios:
A: Costs drop 40% in 5 years, tax incentives persist -> mass residential adoption, large firms enter
C: Breakthrough in competing technology (heat pumps) -> solar confined to off-grid applications
Strategic posture: Shape -- the industry needs standardization and credibility. Pioneer if the firm can secure raw material supply and build installer network (learning curve in installation is steep and proprietary). Follow if the firm's strength is manufacturing scale, since early segmentation (residential vs. commercial, active vs. passive) will likely shift.
Key moves: Promote industry standards to build buyer confidence. Invest in installer training (proprietary learning curve). Secure supplier relationships for collectors. Time equity financing during current Wall Street enthusiasm. Avoid attacking competitors publicly -- the industry's image of reliability is fragile.
Monitoring signals: Rate of government incentive renewals (Scenario A vs. B). Heat pump cost trajectory (Scenario C). Entry of major HVAC manufacturers (signals shift from early to scale-based barriers).
Shifting barriers watch: Current barriers (technological creativity, risk tolerance) will erode. Prepare for scale-based competition by building brand and distribution before large entrants arrive.
