playbook-hiring-surge

name

playbook-hiring-surge

description

Produces a copy-ready clause about a company adding people to one specific department in the last 6 months, plus the department-level headcount counts that drive the segment gate. Triggers on "they're hiring", "hiring surge", "growing their sales team", "scaling the team", "headcount growth", "who added SDRs", "companies that just built a marketing team". Outputs hiring_surge_line, a lowercase second-person clause that completes "Noticed <line>."

Playbook: Hiring Surge

All rules here are best practice, not law. Override any of them when the campaign calls for it; note the best practice once and move on.

Use when: the angle is "you are scaling this team right now".

Do not use when: you want the job ad itself (playbook-job-posting-language), the person who just started (playbook-new-in-role), or money rather than people (playbook-fundraising).

One-line output: hiring_surge_line = "your sales team has 8 people who started new roles in the last six months"

The three things you cannot get wrong

1. It is role starts, not hires. Measured 28.3% internal moves. The filter counts people whose current role started in the window — promotions, re-titles and lateral moves included. Ship started new roles; never hired, added, brought on.
2. Never buy a LinkedIn URL with enrichment credits to feed this. The company-enrichment action that returns one costs ~8 credits per company and was, by three orders of magnitude, the largest cost line here. Use a free LinkedIn URL off your intake payload where you have one, and the bare normalized domain everywhere else. Both are free.
3. The gate is a ratio PLUS absolute floors: role_starts >= 2 && dept_total >= 4. This cuts the qualifying segment from 14.6% to 5.2%, so plan roughly 96,000 source rows per 5,000-lead campaign. Do not loosen it to hit volume; source more rows.

1. Trigger and scope

A hiring surge is a department-level fact, not a company-level one. "This company grew from 200 to 260 people" is almost useless in copy, because the reader cannot tell whether it means anything to them. "Your sales team has 8 people who started new roles in the last six months" is specific, checkable, and implies a budget owner. This playbook produces the second kind.

The whole signal comes from one Clay table action, Find Employee Headcount by Criteria, which is free on every Clay plan. It counts how many people currently at a company match a filter set, and it accepts a recency filter (current_role_max_months_since_start_date), so running it twice per department gives you the department total and the department's last-6-months intake in one pass. No other vendor does department-sliced recency counts at zero marginal cost. That is why this playbook has exactly one source and no expensive fallback.

Four things it does not do

• It does not tell you who. Counts only. Names are a different, non-free action.
• It does not date the starts. The copy can only ever say "in the last six months", never "in March".
• It does not pick your departments. Sales and marketing are the two shown here; the same pattern extends to engineering, RevOps, customer success or finance.
• It does not prove anyone was HIRED. Read this one before you write copy.

The promotion confound, measured

The filter counts people whose current role started in the last 6 months. That set includes external hires, internal promotions, title changes and lateral moves. LinkedIn also generates a new role start date when someone merely edits or re-titles an existing position.

• Supported by the data: your sales team has 8 people who started new roles in the last six months
• Not supported, do not ship: you added 8 people to the sales team in the last six months

The second sentence is a factual claim about the reader's own team that they can disprove instantly if three of those eight were promotions, and cold copy does not survive that.

The over-count rate is measured: 28.3%. Of 276 people whose current role started inside a six-month window across 18 companies, 78 were already working at that company before the window opened. Sliced by title: sales-titled 24.4%, marketing-titled 34.6%. And that is a lower bound — the detector only sees a prior role that started 7+ months ago, so a February joiner promoted in July counts as a joiner. Real examples from the audit: a Business Development Representative who became a Mid-Market Account Executive; a Manager of Customer Success who became a Senior Manager; a Project Manager II who became a Project Manager III.

On one company in the audit, 5 of the 7 recent sales starters were internal moves — "you hired 3 people for sales" would have been wrong about most of the evidence behind it.

Treat every count as an upper bound on hires. Roughly 1 reply in 4 has a right to say "nobody joined my team, I was promoted", and the locked prompt is written so that reply contradicts nothing you sent. If a client insists on "you hired", show them the 28.3% first. That is an operator sign-off, not a default.

Re-measuring the confound on a new ICP is free (about 40 searches). Per company, run two people searches: one for current_role_max_months_since_start_date: 6 (the population the gate counts), one for everyone already there before the window (include_past_experiences: true with a role_range_end_month of YYYY-MM). Intersect on the LinkedIn profile URL: anyone in both started a new role at a company they already worked at.

2. Output contract

Inputs required per row

Field	Type	Source	Required?
company_linkedin_url	string	your intake payload, as a free formula column	yes when present — this is the preferred and free identifier
company_domain (fallback)	string, bare lowercase, no www	your list, via Normalize a Domain	yes when no LinkedIn URL, which on a measured intake is 83.6% of rows

The action prefers a LinkedIn company URL — it is the identifier the underlying people dataset is keyed on. A bare domain forces a resolution step that can silently land on a different company, so the name-collision guard in §7 is mandatory on those rows.

The identifier waterfall, in order:

1. Free LinkedIn URL from your intake payload. Measured populated on 16.35% of rows.
2. Bare company domain on the other 83.6%. Free. Accept the collision risk, apply the guard.
3. If a client genuinely needs LinkedIn URLs resolved at scale, resolve them outside Clay with a domain-to-LinkedIn enrichment endpoint and webhook them in. Never buy them with Clay credits.

Stated plainly: on the 83.6% bare-domain rows the identifier is weaker and some counts will land on the wrong company. That is the right trade at 8 credits a row, but nobody has measured how much the bare-domain path degrades the 0.28% cell error rate — every measurement below was taken on rows identified by a purchased URL. Measure it if you run a large batch.

Output fields

Field	Type	Example	Null allowed?
sales_headcount_total	integer	28	no, 0 when nobody matches
sales_hires_6mo	integer	8	no, 0
marketing_headcount_total	integer	15	no, 0
marketing_hires_6mo	integer	2	no, 0
hiring_surge_dept	string	sales	yes, "" when the gate says NO
hiring_surge_hires	integer	8	yes, 0 when the gate says NO
hiring_surge_line	string	see above, max 90 chars	yes

hiring_surge_hires counts role starts, not hires. Nothing downstream may relabel it — including a copywriter editing the sequence by hand.

Abstain value: "" for the line and the department, 0 for the count. The counts themselves never abstain: a company with no sales team returns 0, which is a real answer.

Coverage expectation

Measured on 3,964 distinct companies:

Metric	98-row sample	3,964 companies
Sales roster resolved (1+ person)	52%	35.1%
Marketing roster resolved	61%	45.3%
Either department resolved	71%	52.9%
Ratio gate = YES	17%	14.6%
Gate = YES with the absolute floors	not measured	5.2%
Action cell error rate	not measured	0.28% (11 of 4,000)

Note how optimistic the 98-row sample was. Plan list size on 5.2%, not 17%. Filling a 5,000-lead campaign takes roughly 96,000 source rows.

The floors delete 64% of the gated segment, and that is the price of the precision they buy: on 20 held-out companies the gate with floors scores 17/20 (85%) against 10/20 (50%) without them. The rows they delete are the ones that would tell a two-person law firm its marketing team is scaling.

Copy-fit rules

• Slots into: Noticed {{hiring_surge_line}}.
• Second person only. The clause must never contain the company name. That removes the dependency on name cleaning and a whole class of capitalization bugs — a v1 prompt that allowed the company name and required a lowercase first letter produced "silktide added 8 people".
• Starts lowercase, no trailing period, no em dashes, under 90 characters, 5th-grade reading level.
• The time phrase is always "in the last six months" or "over the past six months". Never a month name, never a date, because the source does not carry one.

Downstream gate

If hiring_surge_line is empty: exclude the row from this campaign. This is one of the few playbooks where empty means exclusion rather than a spintax drop, because the entire campaign premise is the surge. Route excluded rows to a fallback campaign.

3. Source chain (cost-tagged)

#	Source	Cost	What it does	Stop rule
0	Company-wide growth pre-filter (list build only)	FREE	POST /search-company with company_headcount_growth: {min:50}	optional and marginal. Only when your TAM is 4x+ oversized
0b	Department contact-count pre-filter (list build only)	FREE	a contacts search/count endpoint filtered by job function	drop companies with no department at all before they reach Clay
1	Free LinkedIn URL from intake	FREE	formula column	16.35% fill
2	Bare domain from Normalize a Domain	FREE	the fallback identifier	covers the other 83.6%
3	Clay Find Employee Headcount by Criteria x4 columns	FREE	the engine	only advance if the action is removed or made paid
4	Model phrasing pass, gated rows only	CHEAP	see §6	only when Hiring Surge Dept is non-empty
5	A people-data-vendor employee-count action	METERED (~5 credits/row, charged even on a miss)	fallback	only if step 3 is unavailable and the operator signed off

Cost summary, per 1,000 source rows: four FREE columns plus about $0.0135 of model spend at the 14.6% gate rate, or $0.0048 at the floors' 5.2%. That is the entire cost. There are no enrichment credits in this chain. What remains is Clay table run time, which is why the free pre-filters are still worth running on a large intake.

On step 0, with the measurement

§1 argues company-level growth is nearly useless as a signal, and step 0 filters on exactly that. It was measured by taking companies whose gate outcome was already known and asking which sit inside the growth pool:

Sample	In the headcount_growth >= 50 pool
200 gate-YES	48 (24.0%)
200 gate-NO	44 (22.0%)
at 200 vs 200	2.0 points, z = 0.47, p = 0.64, nothing
579 gate-YES	158 of 575 (27.5%)
579 gate-NO	127 of 578 (22.0%)
at 579 vs 579	5.5 points, z = 2.17, p = 0.03

Converted to what matters against a 14.6% base rate: 17.6% inside the pool clear the gate against 13.7% outside. A 1.28x relative lift bought with about 76% of your TAM. Use it only when the TAM is at least 4x oversized. A min:200 variant showed 9.0% vs 12.0%, pointing the wrong way — do not use it.

The method is reusable and worth stealing. You do not need to run the expensive step on 400 new companies to answer "does this pre-filter predict my gate". Take companies whose outcome you already have, send their domains to the filter in batches of 200 to 500, and read the total count with and without it. Four calls instead of four hundred.

Rejected alternatives

• Per-company department counting via a people-search API. Measured: combining a company filter with a job-title filter returned NO_RESULTS on all three test companies while the unfiltered company query returned 53, 351 and 45 people. The title filter does not compose with the company filter the way you would expect, so a department count means paging the whole roster and regexing titles yourself. Fine for verification, far too slow for production.
• A company_headcount_by_department filter. The name is accepted but every inner shape tried returned INVALID_FILTERS. Shape unknown; worth a support ticket, since it would give a free department-level TAM pre-filter.
• Per-company LinkedIn scraping. It is per-company scraping where the Clay action gives a department count for free.
• Richer "employee trends" enrichments. ~10 credits per row for trend data you do not need for one clause. Only for a client who explicitly buys on headcount trend charts.

4. Verification

VERDICT: PASS 17/20 (85%) on held-out companies. The floors were benched, not fitted: 17/20 with them, 10/20 without, on 20 companies drawn blind from a batch created after the floors were written.

The one miss was a wrong abstain in financial services — see §7.

5. Clay implementation

• clay-table.md — the full column build. This is the primary path: the whole chain runs in Clay, because the headcount action has no API surface anywhere and exists only as a table action. Read clay-playbooks/clay-table-harness.md first.
• clay-workflow.md — a CLI-buildable approximation, for the parts that do have workflow actions. Read clay-playbooks/clay-cli-harness.md first.

⚠️ Both are unbuilt specifications.

6. Locked prompt

Model choice, with the arithmetic. Measured on 10 gated rows per model. The prompt is 502 tokens as sent.

Model and params	Clean JSON	p50 latency	Completion tokens	Reasoning tokens	Per 1,000 source rows at 5.2%
gpt-4o-mini, max_tokens=300	10/10	0.93s	28	0	$0.0048
gpt-5-nano, 1200 tokens, default effort	0/10	9.58s	1200 (capped)	1200	unusable
gpt-5-nano, 3000 tokens, default effort	3/3	11.6s	1445	1408	$0.031
gpt-5-nano, reasoning_effort="minimal"	1/1	2.70s	37	0	$0.0021

Two things matter here:

A small reasoning model at default effort returns empty content on this prompt. Ten of ten rows came back finish_reason=length with an empty message after burning the entire 1,200-token budget on reasoning. reasoning_effort="minimal" is the fix and makes it both reliable and the cheapest option in the table.

Inside Clay, ship gpt-4o-mini. Clay's AI column does not expose reasoning_effort, so inside Clay the nano-class model is the default-effort row above: 6.5x more expensive than mini and empty on every row at 1,200 tokens. Outside Clay, use the nano-class model with minimal effort, which is 2.3x cheaper than mini.

Params: max_completion_tokens=1200 (never max_tokens on a reasoning model) plus reasoning_effort="minimal", no temperature, flex tier for batch outside Clay.

STATIC PREFIX (byte-identical across calls, keep first)

You write one short clause for a cold email. The clause tells a company that we noticed people on one of their teams recently started new roles.

You are given a department name and how many people on that team started their current role in the last 6 months. The number is already verified. Your only job is wording.

IMPORTANT: the number counts people who STARTED A NEW ROLE. Some of them were hired from outside and some were promoted or moved internally. You cannot tell which. So never say the company hired, added, brought on, recruited, or grew by those people. Say that those people started new roles, or are new in their roles, or joined that team.

Return JSON only, no prose, no code fence:
{"hiring_surge_line": "...", "confidence": "high|low"}

Rules:
- The clause must read correctly inside this sentence: "Noticed <hiring_surge_line>."
- Write it in second person, about "you" or "your team". Never write the company name.
- Start with a lowercase letter. No trailing period. No em dashes. 5th grade reading level.
- Use the exact number you are given. Never invent a number, a job title, a person, or a date.
- Say "in the last six months" or "over the past six months". Never a specific month or date.
- Never claim the company hired anyone. Say people started new roles.
- Keep it under 90 characters.
- confidence is "high" when the number is 3 or more, otherwise "low".

Examples:
Input: {"department":"sales","role_starts_last_6_months":8}
Output: {"hiring_surge_line":"your sales team has 8 people who started new roles in the last six months","confidence":"high"}
Input: {"department":"marketing","role_starts_last_6_months":3}
Output: {"hiring_surge_line":"on your marketing team, 3 people started new roles in the past six months","confidence":"high"}
Input: {"department":"sales","role_starts_last_6_months":2}
Output: {"hiring_surge_line":"you have 2 people on the sales team who started new roles in the last six months","confidence":"low"}

PER-ROW DATA (appended last)
{"department":"{{Hiring Surge Dept}}","role_starts_last_6_months":{{Hiring Surge Hires}}}

Notice what the prompt refuses to let the model say: that anyone was hired. The input field is named role_starts_last_6_months rather than hires for the same reason, so a future editor cannot casually reintroduce the claim.

Notice what is not in this prompt: the abstain decision, the department choice, and the company name. All three were in v1 and all three caused failures. The abstain and department logic moved into deterministic formulas; the company name was removed from the output shape entirely.

Cache note. At ~460 tokens this sits below the 1,024-token prompt-cache floor, so measured cached_tokens was 0 on every call. Expected and fine at this size. Keep the static prefix first anyway — if a client variant grows it past 1,024 the discount switches on for free.

Verifier pass: not needed, and this is the rare playbook where that is genuinely true. The number is copied from a deterministic count the model is told not to change, and the only date reference is a fixed six-month phrase. There is no free-text claim to fabricate. What can go wrong is upstream — wrong company matched, stale data, the promotion confound — and a second model call sees none of that, because it only sees the same number. Spend the effort on the §7 identity checks instead.

Truncation guard: finish_reason == "length" with empty content means retry at 3,000 tokens, never abstain. Setting reasoning_effort="minimal" takes the truncation rate to zero and is the shipped fix; keep the retry ladder as a second line of defence, not as the plan.

7. Edge cases and failure modes

Symptom	Cause	Fix
Prospect replies "nobody joined my team, I was promoted"	28.3% of role starts are internal moves	The locked prompt says "started new roles", true of promotions and joins alike, so the reply contradicts nothing. Never ship a hire claim
A 45,000-person enterprise fires the gate on below-average churn	The roleCount > 6 absolute override has no upper bound. Observed: a 1,896-person sales function with 95 six-month role starts — 5.3%, below normal churn. 1.0% of gated companies	⚠️ Unvalidated guard: require the ratio clause (not the >6 override) on any department with 200+ people, or drop the override entirely. Bench it on a fresh blind draw before shipping, exactly as the floors were benched
An agency fires the sales gate on client-service staff	At marketing and creative agencies, Account Executive and Account Manager are client service, and the Sales function counts them	⚠️ Unvalidated guard: exclude those titles when the industry is Marketing Services, Advertising or Design, or route agencies through job_title_keywords instead
A financial-services company abstains when it should not	In finance and professional services the sellers are titled Principal, Business Development or Client Relationship, which job_functions=["Sales"] does not catch. This was the only miss in the bench	Add a third department column bound to job_title_keywords: ["business development","client relationship","partnerships"] for those ICPs
Every row returns "No Role Found" for a department	job_functions got a value outside the enum. A wrong enum value does not error, it silently returns zero	Only "Sales" and "Marketing and Public Relations" are confirmed. Test any new value on 10 known-good companies first, or use free-text job_title_keywords
Copy reads "silktide added 8 people" with a lowercase company name	v1 allowed the company name in a clause that also required a lowercase first letter	v2 removes the company name entirely. Never put a company name in a clause with a lowercase-first rule

Hard rules

• Do not buy company enrichment to get a LinkedIn URL here. ~8 credits per company. Related trap: Find Employee Headcount by Criteria is a free Clay action, but a similarly named third-party Get Employee Count by Criteria costs 5 credits even when it finds nothing. Check which one your column is bound to.
• One lead is never in two of your campaigns at once. If you also run playbook-new-in-role, the push gate must exclude people who personally just started, or the same person gets two different sequences from you.
• The count is role starts, not hires. No copy, no variable name, no client-facing summary may call it hires.