| name | hypothesis-tree |
| description | Structure complex questions into testable hypotheses. Use when validating product ideas, debugging problems, planning experiments, or breaking down ambiguous challenges into actionable research. |
Hypothesis Tree - Structured Problem Decomposition
A Hypothesis Tree is a structured approach to breaking down complex questions into testable
hypotheses.
Originally from management consulting (McKinsey), it ensures MECE (Mutually Exclusive,
Collectively Exhaustive) coverage of a problem space.
When to Use This Skill
- Validating new product or feature ideas
- Investigating why metrics are underperforming
- Planning user research or experiments
- Breaking down ambiguous strategic questions
- Prioritizing what to test first
- Communicating analysis structure to stakeholders
Core Concepts
Structure of a Hypothesis Tree
Main Question
"Why is X happening?"
|
+---------------+---------------+
| | |
Hypothesis A Hypothesis B Hypothesis C
| | |
+--+--+ +--+--+ +--+--+
| | | | | |
Sub- Sub- Sub- Sub- Sub- Sub-
hyp hyp hyp hyp hyp hyp
MECE Principle
Mutually Exclusive: No overlap between branches Collectively Exhaustive:
All possibilities covered
Good MECE: Bad (not MECE):
+----------------+ +----------------+
| New users | | Mobile users | <- Overlap
|----------------| |----------------|
| Returning | | New users | <- Overlap
| users | |----------------|
+----------------+ | Some users | <- Vague
+----------------+
