| name | customer-lifetime-value |
| description | Calculates customer lifetime value with segmentation, prediction models, and retention investment recommendations. Use when determining how much a customer is worth over time. |
| allowed-tools | Read Write Glob |
| metadata | {"author":"matthewhitcham","version":"1.0"} |
Customer Lifetime Value
When to Use This Skill
Use this skill when you need to:
- Calculate customer lifetime value (CLV/LTV) for your business
- Segment customers by value to prioritize retention efforts
- Determine how much to spend on customer acquisition (CAC:LTV ratio)
- Build a CLV model for forecasting and budgeting
DO NOT use this skill for short-term revenue forecasting, individual customer profitability analysis, or financial auditing. This is for CLV modeling and strategic decision-making.
Core Principle
CLV IS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT METRIC FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH — IT TELLS YOU HOW MUCH YOU CAN AFFORD TO SPEND TO ACQUIRE AND RETAIN A CUSTOMER.
Phase 1: Brief
Required Inputs
| Input | What to Ask | Default |
|---|
| Business model | "Subscription, one-time purchase, repeat purchase, or hybrid?" | Must be provided |
| Average order value | "What does a customer spend per transaction?" | Must be provided |
| Purchase frequency | "How often does a customer buy? (monthly, quarterly, annually)" | Must be provided |
| Customer lifespan | "How long does a typical customer stay? (months or years)" | Estimated from churn |
| Churn rate | "What percentage of customers leave each month/year?" | Estimate from data |
| Gross margin | "What is your gross margin percentage?" | 60-70% for digital |
| Segments | "Any customer segments to analyze separately? (plan tier, channel, geography)" | Overall first |
GATE: Confirm inputs before calculating.
Phase 2: Calculate
CLV Formulas
Simple CLV (good starting point):
CLV = Average Order Value x Purchase Frequency x Customer Lifespan
Margin-Adjusted CLV:
CLV = (AOV x Frequency x Lifespan) x Gross Margin %
Subscription CLV:
CLV = (Monthly Revenue per Customer / Monthly Churn Rate) x Gross Margin %
CAC:LTV Ratio
- Healthy: LTV is 3x+ CAC
- Warning: LTV is 1-3x CAC (growth is expensive)
- Danger: LTV is below CAC (losing money on every customer)
GATE: Present the baseline CLV calculation and confirm accuracy before segmenting.
Phase 3: Build
Deliverables
1. CLV Calculation Worksheet
- Formula with all inputs clearly documented
- Overall CLV number with margin adjustment
- CAC:LTV ratio with interpretation
- Payback period: months to recover acquisition cost
2. Segmented CLV Analysis
- CLV by customer segment (plan tier, acquisition channel, cohort)
- High-value segment profile: what do your best customers look like?
- Low-value segment: are there customers costing more than they generate?
3. Sensitivity Analysis
- How CLV changes if churn improves by 5%, 10%, 20%
- How CLV changes if AOV increases by 10%, 20%
- Which lever has the biggest impact on CLV?
4. Strategic Recommendations
- Retention investment: how much to spend keeping customers based on CLV
- Acquisition budget: maximum CAC based on target LTV ratio
- Expansion revenue opportunities: upsell potential per segment
Phase 4: Polish
CLV Dashboard Metrics
Track monthly:
- Average CLV (overall and by segment)
- CAC:LTV ratio trend
- Churn rate trend (the biggest CLV driver)
- Revenue per customer trend
Quarterly Review
Recalculate CLV quarterly as inputs change. Update acquisition and retention budgets accordingly.
Example 1: SaaS Subscription ($49/month, 5% monthly churn)
CLV: $49 / 0.05 = $980 gross, $686 margin-adjusted (70% margin)
Healthy CAC target: Under $229 (3:1 ratio)
Key lever: Reducing churn from 5% to 4% increases CLV by 25% to $857
Example 2: E-commerce (AOV $75, 3 purchases/year, 2.5 year lifespan)
CLV: $75 x 3 x 2.5 = $562 gross, $281 margin-adjusted (50% margin)
Healthy CAC target: Under $94 (3:1 ratio)
Key lever: Increasing frequency from 3 to 4 purchases/year increases CLV by 33%
Anti-Patterns
- Using revenue instead of margin — CLV based on revenue overstates value. Always adjust for gross margin.
- Ignoring churn — assuming customers stay forever inflates CLV to meaningless numbers.
- One-size-fits-all CLV — your best customers may be worth 10x your worst. Segment or miss the insight.
- Static calculation — CLV changes as your product, pricing, and retention improve. Recalculate regularly.
- CLV without CAC context — CLV alone is a vanity metric. The ratio to acquisition cost is what matters.
Recovery
- No churn data: Estimate from revenue trends or customer count changes. Even a rough estimate is better than ignoring churn.
- Too early for reliable data: Calculate based on 3-month data and label it "projected." Revisit quarterly as data accumulates.
- CLV is lower than CAC: This is a critical finding. Prioritize: reduce CAC, improve retention, increase AOV, or raise prices.
- User unsure of gross margin: Use industry defaults (SaaS: 70-80%, e-commerce: 30-50%, services: 50-70%) and refine later.
