cm-renewal-forecaster

Forecasts renewal outcomes across the portfolio by combining health data, engagement signals, usage trends, and historical patterns into probability-weighted projections. Produces renewal pipeline reports for CS leadership, CRO, and CFO audiences. Use when asked to forecast renewals, predict churn probability, build a retention forecast, assess portfolio renewal risk, project NRR, or when leadership needs forward-looking retention data. Also triggers for questions about renewal probability, churn forecasting, NRR projection, retention pipeline, or revenue risk assessment.

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Repository: stephenrogan/augmented-csm
Letzte Quellaktivität: 23. März 2026 um 11:04
Erkannte Sprache von SKILL.md: Englisch
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Installationsoptionen

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npx skills add https://github.com/stephenrogan/augmented-csm --skill cm-renewal-forecaster

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SKILL.md

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name	cm-renewal-forecaster
description	Forecasts renewal outcomes across the portfolio by combining health data, engagement signals, usage trends, and historical patterns into probability-weighted projections. Produces renewal pipeline reports for CS leadership, CRO, and CFO audiences. Use when asked to forecast renewals, predict churn probability, build a retention forecast, assess portfolio renewal risk, project NRR, or when leadership needs forward-looking retention data. Also triggers for questions about renewal probability, churn forecasting, NRR projection, retention pipeline, or revenue risk assessment.
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"Stephen Rogan","version":"1.0.0","pillar":"commercial-motion","category":"commercial-ops"}

Renewal Forecaster

Produces probability-weighted renewal forecasts by combining health signals, usage data, engagement patterns, and historical outcomes. Part of the Commercial Motion pillar.

This is an analytical and reporting skill. It produces forecasts and projections. It does not make retention decisions or set strategy -- those are human calls informed by the forecast.

When to Run

Scheduled: Weekly forecast refresh for all accounts renewing in next 180 days
On-demand: When leadership requests a forecast update
Triggered: When a significant risk or health signal changes on an account within the renewal window

Risk Classification	Base Probability	Positive Adjustments	Negative Adjustments
On Track	95%	+2% if health >85 and stable for 90+ days	-5% if any single risk signal present; -10% if engagement declining
Watch	75%	+10% if active save play showing health improvement	-10% per additional risk signal; -5% if usage declining; -15% if competitive signal
At Risk	45%	+15% if executive engaged and customer responding to intervention	-10% if competitive signal; -15% if champion departed; -10% if timeline <60 days with no progress
Critical	15%	+20% if customer explicitly willing to negotiate (not silent)	-10% if timeline <30 days; -15% if customer stated intent to leave

Metric	Computation
Expected retained ARR	Sum of (account ARR * renewal probability) for all renewing accounts
Expected churn ARR	Sum of (account ARR * (1 - renewal probability))
Expected expansion ARR	Sum of (expansion opportunity value * expansion probability) for accounts with both renewal and expansion
Forecast NRR	(Expected retained ARR + Expected expansion ARR) / Total renewing ARR
Optimistic scenario (80% CI)	Assume all Watch accounts renew, At Risk accounts at 60%, Critical at 25%
Pessimistic scenario (80% CI)	Assume Watch accounts at 60%, At Risk at 30%, Critical at 5%
Most likely scenario	Use the computed probabilities as-is

Category	Criteria	Why Actionable
Saveable At Risk	At Risk, renewal >60 days away, no competitive signal, root cause is addressable	Enough time and a path to resolution exists
Critical but engaged	Critical, customer is still communicating and willing to discuss	Window is closing but customer has not fully disengaged
Watch trending down	Watch, health declining for 2+ consecutive periods	Currently probable renewal, but trajectory suggests it may become At Risk without intervention
Expansion at renewal	On Track with active expansion signal and renewal in next 90 days	Opportunity to convert a renewal into a growth event

Decision Point	Context Provided	What the Human Decides
Forecast review	Full forecast with scenarios and actionable accounts	Whether the probabilities match their qualitative intelligence. CSM managers override individual account probabilities based on relationship context
Resource allocation	Actionable accounts ranked by save potential and ARR	Which accounts to invest save effort in, given limited CSM capacity
Executive communication	Forecast with confidence intervals	How to present the forecast to the CRO/CFO -- which scenario to emphasise, what narrative to frame around the numbers
Expansion timing	Accounts with both renewal and expansion signals	Whether to pursue expansion at renewal (efficient) or separate the conversations (less risky)

cm-renewal-forecaster

Installationsoptionen

Quelldateien prüfen

Renewal Forecaster

When to Run

Core Execution Logic

Step 1: Identify Renewal Cohort

Renewal Forecaster

When to Run

Core Execution Logic

Step 1: Identify Renewal Cohort

Step 2: Assign Renewal Probability

Step 3: Compute Portfolio Forecast

Step 4: Identify Actionable Accounts

Step 5: Generate Forecast Report

Handoff to Human

Confidence and Limitations

Dependencies

References

cm-renewal-forecaster

Quellinformationen

Installationsoptionen

Quelldateien prüfen

Mehr aus diesem Repository

Mehr aus diesem Repository

Renewal Forecaster

When to Run

Core Execution Logic

Step 1: Identify Renewal Cohort

Renewal Forecaster

When to Run

Core Execution Logic

Step 1: Identify Renewal Cohort

Step 2: Assign Renewal Probability

Step 3: Compute Portfolio Forecast

Step 4: Identify Actionable Accounts

Step 5: Generate Forecast Report

Handoff to Human

Confidence and Limitations

Dependencies

References