temporal-scenario

name	temporal-scenario
description	How does it evolve over time? — Short/medium/long-term timeline projection with technology maturity curves
version	1.0.0
category	experiment-execution
type	strategy
sops	["scenario-driver-identification","timeline-projection","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-impact-assessment","robustness-scoring","scenario-synthesis"]
tactics	["strategy-robustness-testing"]
dependencies	{"sops":["robustness-scoring","scenario-driver-identification","scenario-impact-assessment","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-synthesis","timeline-projection"],"tactics":["strategy-robustness-testing"]}

Strategy: Temporal Scenario

Methodology

Temporal Scenario Planning with Technology Maturity Curves. Project how the research landscape evolves across multiple time horizons (short: 6 months, medium: 2 years, long: 5+ years). Map technology S-curves, adoption dynamics, and paradigm shift timing.

Key principles:

• Multi-horizon: Separate analysis for short, medium, and long term
• S-curve awareness: Technologies follow predictable maturity patterns
• Paradigm sensitivity: Identify potential paradigm shifts and their timing
• Path dependency: Current decisions constrain future options

Execution Flow

1. Identify temporal drivers → spawn scenario-driver-identification

   • Input: research context, focus on time-dependent factors
   • Output: drivers with temporal dynamics (maturation rates, adoption curves)

2. Project timelines → spawn timeline-projection

   • Input: temporal drivers, current maturity levels
   • Output: multi-horizon projections with uncertainty bands

3. Construct temporal narratives → spawn scenario-narrative-construction (×3 horizons)

   • Input: timeline projections, horizon-specific drivers
   • Output: narrative per time horizon

4. Assess impact → spawn scenario-impact-assessment (per horizon)

   • Input: temporal narrative, research approach, decision timing
   • Output: time-dependent impact analysis

5. Score robustness → spawn robustness-scoring

   • Input: all temporal assessments
   • Output: temporal robustness index, optimal timing windows

6. Synthesize → spawn scenario-synthesis

   • Input: temporal scenarios, timing recommendations
   • Output: temporal strategy with decision points

Budget Gate

Step	Token Budget	Notes
Driver identification	8K