workforce-planning

# Workforce Planning ## Core Principle: Outcomes Before Headcount Headcount is the output of the plan. The plan starts with required outcomes, derives roles, models capacity, and then sums to headcount. A plan that starts with "we need 80 people next year" and works backward is upside-down. ## Plan Construction 1. **Translate strategy to outcomes**: revenue plan, product roadmap, OKRs 2. **Translate outcomes to roles**: which roles produce these outcomes? 3. **Estimate productive capacity per role**: with ramp time 4. **Subtract current capacity**: account for existing employees and known attrition 5. **Derive net hires**: with start dates and ramp curves 6. **Reconcile to financial plan**: dollar cost, fully loaded 7. **Stage the hires**: align with revenue, fundraise, product milestones ## Build / Buy / Borrow For each capability gap: - **Build**: train an existing employee. Cheapest if the person exists; slowest if they don't - **Buy**: hire externally. Faster but more expensive and risky - **Borrow**: contractor, fractional, agency, advisor. Right when work is bounded or role uncertain Most plans default to "buy." Audit and push toward "build" or "borrow" where appropriate. ## Ramp Time Modeling A new hire produces fractional output during ramp: | Role type | Ramp curve | |-----------|------------| | IC, well-defined | 20% in month 1; 50% by month 3; 80% by month 6; 100% by month 9 | | IC, ambiguous | 10% month 1; 30% month 3; 60% month 6; 100% month 12 | | Manager | Slower: 50% by month 3; full by month 9–12 | | Senior leader | 12–18 months to full productivity | Model this explicitly in plans. Validate against historicals (track actual ramp curves to refine). ## Capacity vs. Roadmap Audit Quarterly: - List committed initiatives - Estimate capacity required (in person-months or similar) - Compare to actual capacity (with ramp factored in) - If capacity is < 80% of demand: cut roadmap, hire faster, or borrow ## Critical Role Bench Planning For top 20–50 roles: - Identify critical roles (loss = significant disruption) - Name backups (not always 1:1; sometimes a combination) - Identify development gap to readiness - Track retention signal Don't import enterprise 9-box succession at 50 people. Do build informal bench review at 200+. ## Contractor vs. Employee Classification matters legally (DOL, state AGs). Common factors: - Behavioral control (does the company direct how the work is done?) - Financial control (who provides tools, sets pricing, bears risk?) - Type of relationship (written contract, benefits, expectation of permanence?) When in doubt, classify as employee — misclassification is expensive. EOR (Employer of Record) services support international hiring without setting up local entities. EOR adds overhead but reduces complexity. ## Planning Cadences - **Annual**: full plan; tied to fundraise / revenue plan - **Quarterly**: re-forecast; reconcile actual vs. plan - **Monthly**: ATS funnel review; pacing check - **Ad-hoc**: pivot points (new product line, M&A, market changes) ## Common Failures - Hockey-stick hiring plans disconnected from revenue - "We need a Head of X" reflex without articulating the work - Backfilling vs. rebuilding (auto-backfill when role should be eliminated) - Contractor sprawl (classification risk) - Cost-of-living illusion (assuming all geos are equally productive at the same comp) - Founder span explosion (no plan to add layer) - No succession for the founder ## Output Format Headcount plan spreadsheet: - Tab 1: Plan by quarter (function, role, level, geo, start date, ramp, fully-loaded cost) - Tab 2: Roadmap → capacity mapping - Tab 3: Critical role bench - Tab 4: Ramp assumptions and historicals - Tab 5: Reconciliation to financial plan ## Cross-References - `workforce-planner` agent - `people-strategy-roadmap` skill - `org-design-principles` skill - `talent-acquisition-strategist` agent ## Key References - Hoffman, R., & Casnocha, B. (2014). *The Alliance*. - Boudreau, J., & Ramstad, P. (2007). *Beyond HR*. - Industry practitioner work on workforce planning at growth-stage tech